A pre-Prime Day slump in Amazon sales 🌡️ [MDSR #26]

40% of MDSR readers expect “Very Good” performance from their storefront across Amazon’s Summer Prime Day shopping event this year. 

With big deal days from TikTok, Walmart, Target, and Best Buy on the docket this month, we dive into everything sellers can expect below.

Hot Off The Presses 📰

They say the run-up to Prime Day is the worst time to shop on Amazon, but nothing — not even inflation or competing deals at Target, Walmart, et al. — can stop shoppers from driving another predicted sales record for Amazon’s summer shopping event this month. 

With Similarweb forecasting a 14.4% increase in Prime Day revenue and 33% of parents planning to spend 22% more on back-to-school shopping this summer — particularly at Amazon — we see why Jeff Bezos is selling off millions of his shares… again.  

As far as other noteworthy things for sale? TikTok is coming in hot with their own Deals for You Days just one week before Prime Day. For brands, TikTok’s event is a chance to cash in on the platform’s viral network effect to get their products in front of deal-hungry shoppers — but word on the street is that sellers expect TikTok Shop to drive about 20% of sales from these July events while Amazon’s Prime Day dominates the rest. 

Even with a lot to look forward to with Prime Day coming up, sellers are bracing for another slap in the face from our favorite eCom giant — this time, in the form of a Temu-like bargain section coming to Amazon’s sprawling web store. Their grievance is that 68% of shoppers have bought something from Temu in the last year despite only 7% of shoppers reporting that they trust the platform.

Actions speak louder than words, and it sounds like Amazon going (even more) the way of Temu will make it hard for many sellers to compete. Maybe Amazon’s seamless checkout on Facebook and Instagram can help turn those sales numbers around? Especially with consumer usage of social media platforms shifting that direction again. 

Among other shifts sellers should know about is that Google now favors eCom sites and user-generated content in search results. This would be a good time to optimize your product variations for SEO as ChatGPT probably won’t be dethroning Google search anytime soon. 

To be clear, GenAI is very much reshaping eCommerce and online marketing at the moment — by damaging consumer trust.

Million Dollar Advice 💸 

Master eCom sellers like father-son duo Miles and Maurice Huffman would be the first to tell you that standing up a business is only half the battle. 

Finding your X-factor takes luck — which according to the Huffmans, stands for “labor under correct knowledge” — and it’s worth experimenting full steam ahead until you get there.

That’s exactly how they achieved epic virality with their first ever TikTok video — and parlayed it into an impressive deal on Shark Tank, setting them up for success for years to come. 

Ready for an inspiring story about the power of “throwing spaghetti at the wall” to find what works, blending traditional business methods with contemporary tactics, and entrepreneurial resilience in the face of hardship?

Listen to Miles & Maurice Huffman: How a TikTok Video Propelled a Father-Son Team to Shark Tank

The power of Prime Day ⚡️

The first day of July 2023’s Amazon Prime Day was the single largest sales day in company history with Prime members purchasing more than 375 million items worldwide, and saving $2.5 billion on millions of deals across Amazon’s marketplace. 

These numbers alone are quite literally staggering, but here are a few others from research firm Numerator hype you up even more for the power of Prime Day:

• More than 40% of U.S. households are expected to shop Amazon Prime Day deals in July 2024

• Over 50% of Prime Day 2024 shoppers will likely compare prices at other retail sites — but still purchase on Amazon 

• The majority of shoppers will be looking for low prices and item variety this year 

• CPG categories like pet supplies, beverages, and vitamins & supplements are poised to continue their Prime Day growth this year

For real-time stats and coverage of Amazon Prime Day 2024, check out Numerator’s Amazon Prime Day tracker. 

Think this is helpful?

If you’re overpaying for FBA reimbursements… 💀

Many FBA sellers are unaware they are paying unnecessary fees for reimbursements that should be automatic. ​Some reimbursement providers exploit a 4-day loophole in Amazon's system, leading to extra costs for sellers.

The 4-Day Loophole Explained

Amazon's system auto-pays reimbursements after 64+ days instead of 60 days. This creates a 4-day window where providers can file claims for failed Customer FBA Return issues after 60 days, resulting in Amazon approving and paying reimbursements earlier.

Some providers file claims during this 60-63 day period, causing sellers to pay service fees for reimbursements that would have been automatic.

Steps to Identify and Address the Issue

Sellers can check if their provider is exploiting the loophole by examining their Seller Central account, focusing on Customer Return Claims filed within the 60-63 day window. If found, sellers should request a refund from their provider.

Seeking Professional Assistance

For help evaluating this matter, reach out to the experts at Getida for their guide with step-by-step instructions for checking Seller Central accounts. By taking these steps, you can ensure you’re not overpaying for FBA reimbursements.

Get the guide 

MDS in the wild 🐾

Apart from our exclusive members-only events, we like to extend the fun to non-members as well — most recently at our MDS New York chapter meetup.

Interested in joining in the fun? Look no further than MDS Inspire 2025 — the biggest MDS event open to members and non-members alike. 

eCom Stock Watch 📊

AMAZON → Last earnings report on April 25, 2024, next earnings report on August 1, 2024

Amazon stock started 2024 at $151.94. Today Amazon traded at $199.34, up +6% this month and +31% from the start of the year. Their forecasted price for the end of 2024 is now $249 (+25% from today and +64% YoY). Prices are expected to hit $252 by summer 2025 and $286 at year end (+43% from the current price). 

SHOPIFY → Last earnings report on May 8, 2023, next earnings report on August 7, 2024

Shopify stock was $77.90 at the top of 2024. Today they traded at $63.13, up +3% this month and down -15% from the start of the year. By the end of 2024, their price is expected to hit $70.69 (+7% from today and -9% YoY) — and $80.82 by the end of 2025 (+22% from the current price).

ALIBABA → Last earnings report on May 14, 2024, next earnings report on August 8, 2024

Alibaba stock started 2024 at $77.51. Today they traded at $75.70, down -4% this month and down -2% from the start of the year. By the end of 2024, their price is expected to hit $79.08 (+4% from today and +2% YoY) — and $85.50 by the end of 2025 (+13% from the current price).

WALMART → Last earnings report on May 16, 2024, next earnings report date on August 15, 2024

Walmart stock came into 2024 at $157.65. Today they traded at $69.90, up +4% this month and down -56% from the start of the year. By the end of 2024, their price is expected to hit $90.34 (+29% from today and -43% YoY) — and $128.71 by the end of 2025 (+84% from the current price).

Did you see that post 📲

Shots fired…

Until Next Time ✌️

As always, thanks for sticking with us until the end. 

If you’d care to share your thoughts on this newsletter, we’re all ears. Just hit reply to sound off. 

See you next time with more of the latest and greatest content you need to succeed this year 🔥

Sincerely, 

Looking for a mastermind community?

Million Dollar Sellers (MDS) is an exclusive community of 650+ like-minded Amazon and DTC sellers from all over the world. Collectively, our members generate more than 8 billion in annual sales and dominate some of the biggest categories on Amazon. MDS offers world-class events, chapters, industry discounts, resource libraries full of SOPs, templates, and video recordings of private trainings, workshops, events and so much more.

If you are looking for a business professional community made for ecom entrepreneurs, then consider applying today. 

*To qualify, you must be a full-time seller or brand owner and do at least 1 million in verified annual revenue.